Author: Tan Xin
While China is busy digging a canal in Cambodia, Vietnam is transporting a large number of armored vehicles and soldiers to the Cambodia-Vietnam border. What are they planning? Cambodia, of course, is not holding back and has test-fired new rocket launchers provided by China along the border.
Before Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam’s visit to China, Vietnam has been making moves, repeatedly demonstrating its strength. But in reality, this visit is for Vietnam to request China’s assistance. Is this an attempt to bite the hand that feeds them? Vietnam has three major requests from China during this visit:
First, Keep the Power Flowing
Vietnam has long been striving for industrialization, attracting considerable Chinese investment and the relocation of low-end industries from China. It has also secured several friendshoring contracts from the United States. Despite the thin margins, Vietnam’s progress has been notable, but its weak foundation means even electricity is in short supply.
To address this power shortage, the industrial zones in northern Vietnam are currently purchasing electricity from Guangxi, China. Especially during the high-temperature season, the demand for electricity is soaring, sometimes even exceeding supply. Whether for residential or industrial use, power outages are not an option. Therefore, this time, Vietnam will surely ask China to ensure a stable electricity supply, regardless of the state of bilateral relations, and not to cut off the power easily.
Second, Build the North-South High-Speed Rail
The story of Vietnam’s North-South high-speed rail is a classic example of starting early but lagging behind. Vietnam began planning its North-South high-speed rail as early as 2006, but fearing China, it handed the project to Japan. After ten years, only less than ten kilometers have been completed, while the China-Laos Railway and the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail are already operational. Vietnam’s high-speed rail is now scheduled for 2045.
Vietnam wants to revisit the idea of having China build it. Discussions have been held before, but with new leadership in place, the negotiations will likely start anew. However, the same issues persist—Vietnam is overly confident, not wanting to pay but still demanding technology transfer for high-speed rail.
In fact, the window of opportunity has already passed. The Vietnam North-South high-speed rail was originally intended to be the eastern line of the Pan-Asian Railway. However, since Vietnam was unwilling to involve China, the plans have been revised. The railway now extends from the China-Laos Railway into Cambodia, forming the China-Laos-Cambodia Railway. Whether Vietnam builds its high-speed rail or not has become irrelevant.
Third, Expand the Reception of China’s Low-End Industries
Vietnam has been copying China’s playbook for 38 years, but when it came to industrialization, they didn’t know how to proceed. Vietnam has been trying to hedge its bets, leaning on China while flirting with the U.S. and Russia. They’ve tried setting up chip factories and nuclear power plants, but none have succeeded.
So, they’ve turned back to China for help. China has given Vietnam plenty of opportunities, but they’ve failed to seize them. Lacking perseverance and always seeking shortcuts, Vietnam even refused to join the Belt and Road Initiative. Without proper infrastructure, even if China gives them industries, they won’t develop.
Vietnam is somewhat ambitious but lacks a true understanding of China’s development. Their strategy of playing both sides is outdated. Even Russia has aligned itself with China. Does Vietnam really not understand its own limitations?
If Vietnam doesn’t cooperate with China, China can just develop Laos and Cambodia. The power dynamics have changed, and the domestic and international environments are different now. Vietnam’s self-assurance might be misplaced, especially with their actions in the South China Sea, which may not align with China’s expectations.
There might still be a slim chance, depending on Vietnam’s behavior. China will be listening and observing. If Vietnam continues to indulge its ambitions, they might be heading towards another setback. Currently, the two major powers are tied up in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, leaving Southeast Asia unattended.
If Vietnam wants China’s help, it needs to show the right attitude. Approaching China with an arrogant stance as if China owes them something is unlikely to yield benefits for Vietnam, especially if they misjudge the situation.