After the U.S. began producing the B-21 bomber, many believe the U.S. intends to deploy the bombers right on China’s doorstep, and fully bomb China if war breaks out.
So, if China and the U.S. do go to war, will the U.S. truly bomb China all-out?
The answer to this question is quite clear. If a full-scale war erupts between China and the U.S., the U.S. would naturally fully bomb China. Conversely, China would also seek opportunities to bomb the U.S. War is an act of using violence to make the enemy submit to one’s political objectives. It’s foolish to plead in war for the enemy not to use certain violent means.
Advantages of China and the U.S. in War: However, this is based on the assumption that war actually breaks out between the two nations. Given the current size and capacity of China and the U.S., the U.S. is quite wary of engaging in war with China. This is because China possesses immense potential for warfare, and the U.S. cannot guarantee a victory against China.
Considering the war potential of both sides, China boasts the world’s strongest military-industrial production capacity and an enormous troop size.
The U.S. has the most allies and superior geographical advantages. Currently, China’s industrial output accounts for about 30% of the global total, and this refers to the value, not the scale. With an industrial output of $28.5 trillion, the U.S. ranks second globally, largely because of its high-value industries that significantly boost its industrial output. In comparison, China’s industrial sector is much more low-end, so its value doesn’t dominate. In terms of industrial scale, China accounts for over half of the global total. This means that if a large-scale war breaks out, the U.S. would be facing an adversary whose industrial production capacity constitutes half of the entire human society.
Furthermore, China has a vast pool of potential soldiers. With a population of 1.4 billion, China could mobilize tens of millions, or even over 100 million soldiers. To put it in perspective, the combined forces of all nations during World War II were around 90 million. This means that if China begins a large-scale mobilization, its military size could surpass the combined forces of all nations during WWII. Facing such an adversary, even if the U.S. could emerge victorious, it would be left in ruins, pushing the entire world back into a second industrial era.
In comparison, the U.S. also has numerous advantages.
U.S. soldiers Firstly, the U.S.’s ally system. The U.S. has NATO, the world’s largest military alliance. If war breaks out, China might face the entire NATO. Secondly, there’s the U.S.’s geographical advantage. The U.S., being in the Americas, is far from China. This means that for China to attack the U.S. mainland, it would require a massive force to traverse the entire Pacific Ocean – a monumental military challenge. On the other hand, the U.S. can leverage its vast overseas military facilities to strike mainland China.
U.S. forces stationed in South Korea So, in the early stages of war, the U.S. would have a significant geographical advantage.
The U.S. Gains Nothing from Winning: It’s clear that war between China and the U.S. would pose significant risks for both nations. Moreover, from the U.S.’s perspective, even winning against China would not be beneficial. The U.S. currently plays the role of a “global hegemon”, profiting off other nations. The U.S. dollar remains the global currency, allowing the U.S. to collect seigniorage. So, if the U.S. chooses not to go to war with China, it can still thrive. But if it does wage war and wins, all it would inherit is devastation. It would be uncertain if the U.S. could maintain its hegemonic status, and even if it could, there wouldn’t be much left for it to profit from.
U.S. military Logically, the U.S. has no incentive to go to war with China. Thus, the probability of war significantly diminishes, making the possibility of the U.S. bombing China irrelevant.
Kissinger’s Opinion: However, one individual has a different perspective on this: Henry Kissinger. During his 2023 visit to China, he posited that China and the U.S. are heading towards an abyss, implying that the likelihood of war between the two is increasing.
Kissinger’s viewpoint is not unfounded. Although logically the U.S. has little reason to wage war against China, reality doesn’t always adhere to logic. The U.S. might still choose to confront China due to two main reasons:
Firstly, the Taiwan issue. Containing powers on the Eurasian continent has always been a core strategic pursuit for the U.S. During the Cold War, this power was the Soviet Union; now, it’s China.
The U.S. has always actively sought to contain both the Soviet Union and China. If China were to reclaim Taiwan, it would break the U.S.’s blockade, extending its influence further. The U.S. would do everything in its power to prevent China from resolving the Taiwan issue, even employing military means. If the PLA takes military action on Taiwan, the U.S. might intervene, potentially leading to a war between China and the U.S.
Secondly, the rise of extremist ideologies in the U.S., especially among politicians, has made them increasingly anti-China. U.S. propaganda is now adept at blaming China for various issues, reflecting a deep-seated animosity. This trend might eventually push the U.S. into a war with China, even if they understand the potential consequences.
China, on the other hand, is actively preparing for potential conflicts and is ready to counter any aggression.