On August 1st, a grand jury in the United States officially indicted former President Donald Trump for the Capitol riots that took place two and a half years ago. The indictment does not directly accuse Trump of inciting the riots, but charges him with three counts of conspiracy, including attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election through fraud, obstructing official vote-counting procedures, and infringing on citizens’ rights to have their votes counted, as well as one count of attempting to obstruct official proceedings. This indictment is the third criminal lawsuit against Trump this year, following the “Porn Star Hush Money” and the “Secret Document Gate” scandals.
Compared to the fraudulent creation of business documents in the “Porn Star Gate” and the improper handling of secret documents and obstruction of justice in the “Secret Document Gate,” this indictment concerning the operation of American democracy is obviously much more serious. If all the charges are established, Trump, now 77, will inevitably spend the rest of his life in prison.
The indictment lists five methods by which Trump and his six co-conspirators tried to overturn the 2020 election results. The first is spreading false statements about election fraud to try to convince legislators and election officials to overturn the results. The indictment detailed how Department of Justice officials, White House officials, and federal and local government personnel repeatedly told Trump that the theory of election fraud was false, but Trump never stopped spreading related lies.
Second, the indictment explained how Trump conspired to organize illegal elector lists from various states in hopes of overturning the results during the congressional roll call, replacing the list based on the results with his own. The third method involved Trump attempting to use the power of the Justice Department to influence the results of the vote, including trying to appoint one of the conspirators mentioned in the indictment as Attorney General.
The fourth method was Trump’s attempt to convince then Vice President Mike Pence, responsible for presiding over the congressional ballot count, to change the election results. The indictment also revealed, for the first time, contents of conversations recorded in Pence’s notes at the time as evidence against Trump, where Trump personally asked Pence to reject the results multiple times, even complaining once that Pence was “too honest.”
The fifth and last method was how Trump “took advantage” of the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021, to try to convince congressional members to delay the vote confirmation process.
Apart from this indictment, Trump will also face another lawsuit related to his attempt to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results. Trump recently lost a lawsuit attempting to stop a Georgia prosecutor from investigating him. The formal charges in this case are expected to be announced this month.
However, facing four criminal lawsuits will not affect Trump’s qualifications to run for president again. The U.S. Constitution does not stipulate that a person criminally charged or even convicted loses the qualification to be president. There have been precedents for prisoners running for president in the U.S.
For Trump, who loves to portray himself as a victim of political persecution, more criminal lawsuits may be helpful for his election prospects. After a significant setback after the midterm elections last November, Trump’s most significant “rebound” occurred after his first criminal indictment by a New York prosecutor in April this year. At that time, his support among national Republican voters rebounded by nearly 10 percentage points.
The judge who recently dismissed Trump’s appeal regarding the Georgia investigation cleverly pointed out in his verdict that “for some people, being criminally investigated… can become a political asset like gold.”
This description is in line with the political reality of the U.S. Republican Party. According to a recent poll, Trump’s support among Republican primary voters is as high as 54%, far ahead of his strongest opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has only 17% support. Pence, another candidate who now criticizes Trump for placing himself above the Constitution, has only 3% support.
Following the announcement of the indictment regarding the Capitol riot and the attempt to overturn the election, Trump criticized, “Why didn’t they do this two and a half years ago? […] They just wanted to put the lawsuit in the center of my campaign process.” Trump’s campaign team’s statement even likened this indictment to Nazi Germany in the 1930s and the subsequent Soviet Union, indirectly condemning the Biden administration as a “totalitarian dictatorship.”
But the series of criminal lawsuits that could potentially put Trump in prison for decades could be both a “blessing” and a “curse” for him. On the one hand, it is tremendously beneficial to Trump’s situation in the Republican presidential primary. On the other hand, it might undermine his support among moderate voters, making it harder for him to defeat Biden. In fact, a recent poll by the New York Times shows that even among Republican voters, over 10% believe that Trump has committed crimes.
This creates a ‘win or perish’ situation. Among the various charges, many legal analyses believe that the evidence in the hands of the prosecution is quite solid, especially in the “Secret Document Gate” case. If Trump wants to avoid spending the rest of his life in prison, he has to win the 2024 election, use presidential power to withdraw the Department of Justice’s charges against himself, or pardon himself. If unsuccessful, it seems that prison is the only outcome.
In this situation, Trump, who seems invincible, faces two major crises. First, Trump’s entire election campaign is built around his portrayal as a victim of political persecution. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of Biden preemptively pardoning Trump, especially as a ‘October Surprise’ during the election season (by that time, some judicial bodies might have already convicted Trump). This would greatly reduce Trump’s political capital and highlight his tendency to judge others by his own standards.
Secondly, if the U.S. economy continues to grow next year, inflation is addressed, ordinary people start to feel real wage growth, and moderate voters grow more worried about Trump’s return to power, Trump will face the biggest gamble of his life — to bet on a slim chance of victory or use this slim chance as a bargaining chip for Biden’s pardon in exchange for his withdrawal.
Conversely, even if the election situation between Trump and Biden is as ‘neck and neck’ as it is today, Trump must consider that if the election results on November 5, 2024, are unfavorable to him, all his bargaining chips to ensure a comfortable retirement will be lost overnight. If you were Trump, would you dare to bet your remaining life on this?