Author: Analyst Xuan De
There are signs indicating that China and North Korea have tensions towards each other, especially from the Chinese side. July 27th marks the anniversary of the armistice of the Korean War. On July 25th, the Chinese ambassador paid respects at the Yunshan Martyrs’ Cemetery. The news reported that he was “leading embassy diplomats, representatives of overseas Chinese in North Korea, representatives of Chinese-funded institutions, and media representatives,” which means there were no North Korean representatives present.
On July 26th, a general paid respects at the Sino-Korean Friendship Tower, but the news did not mention any accompanying Chinese personnel. Both sides are deliberately avoiding each other.
Another sign: recently, North Korea experienced flooding, and Russia sent a message of condolence, even the South Korean Red Cross inquired about it, but China remained silent. In response to Putin’s message, North Korea repeatedly praised Russia as its “closest and most sincere friend,” which seemed somewhat deliberate. If Russia is your closest, what does that make China? Just a bystander?
For China, 97% of North Korea’s foreign trade comes from China, with North Korea having a trade deficit exceeding 2 billion yuan (it’s guessed that more than 50% of this is non-reimbursable aid). As long as North Korea doesn’t develop nuclear weapons, it cannot escape China’s grasp. Whether the relationship is good or bad doesn’t matter much.
Coincidentally, North Korea understands China’s perspective, so it announces: I’m going to develop nuclear weapons again!
Surprised? China surely can’t be happy about this.
Regarding the flood, a video of the flood control gate in Dandong (reportedly built by local gentry during the Zhang Zuolin era, but mainly effective after PRChina reinforced it with steel and concrete) went viral, revealing some hints. Over 2,000 years ago, Duke Huan of Qi held the Kuiqiu Covenant, the fifth article of which stipulated that neighboring countries along rivers should not deliberately build high dams to flood their neighbors. According to this anecdote (North Korea is also a Confucian civilization country, even if Kim Jong-un, who studied abroad, doesn’t understand it, Eastern countries generally have similar thinking about water management), China’s deliberate construction of high dams clearly indicates it does not regard North Korea as an ally. Sino-Korean relations are not even as good as those between the state of Qi and its neighbors during the Spring and Autumn period. Moreover, it’s not just that China built the dams; they also publicized the videos widely, which surely upset North Korea.
Since last year at the latest, North Korea has been severely short of food. Kim Jong-un publicly admitted during a military parade earlier this year that some people were overeating last year, which made many North Koreans who heard the speech cry. Before this year’s floods, the military reduced food rations for the first time since 2000, indicating that North Korea’s food shortage was already worse than during the “Arduous March.”
This year’s floods hit North Pyongan Province the hardest, and South Pyongan Province, being so close, is also likely suffering. Both are key production areas for North Korea. With a population of 25 million, each person needs to eat a pound of grain a day without much meat. Considering normal logistics and storage losses and husk removal, North Korea needs 5.5 million tons of grain. This year, it’s estimated that North Korea will be short of 1.5-2 million tons of grain. Additionally, Jagang Province, in the middle reaches of the Yalu River, was also severely affected, and the provincial party secretary was removed. This province has many military factories, likely key suppliers to Russia. Rebuilding will cost a lot, and if left unrepaired, Putin’s military budget could be impacted.
In diplomatic settings, North Korea’s deliberate elevation of Russia’s status and high expectations – can the great Putin be relied upon?
Here are two examples:
After the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia gathered over 20 African countries to support it. What terms did Lavrov offer to these African presidents and prime ministers? 50,000 tons of grain! You read that right, equivalent to about $12 million, and from the news wording, it did not include shipping costs. The grain was delivered to the Black Sea, and they had to transport it back under Ukrainian shellfire (before the Black Sea grain agreement was signed). This is almost like handing out alms.
Last year, during North Korea’s food shortage, Lavrov also offered 50,000 tons of grain to the North Korean foreign minister, who immediately refused.
Now, Putin says he is willing to provide aid, but North Korea hasn’t accepted yet, leaving room for negotiation (if needed, we will ask). They probably fear that Putin will offer another 50,000 tons (possibly with North Korea covering shipping costs)! 50,000 tons, after removing husks and losses, gives each North Korean 4 grams of grain per day. Being deeply indebted for such meager assistance is a major loss.
With a minimum gap of 1.5 million tons, North Korea needs $330 million in foreign exchange. In 2023, North Korea’s exports were about $35 million. Even without buying Maybachs and Lexuses, it is far from enough. Moreover, North Korea’s foreign exchange cannot be spent solely on food; essentials like chicken essence and soy sauce (yes, even chicken essence must be bought from China) also need to be purchased.
Given the current situation, China may not want to intervene much. The only two hopes are: the rumored deployment of two brigades of North Korean engineers to Ukraine, depending on how much Putin can pay. The other hope is whether Putin is willing to defy UN sanctions and bring in North Korean labor. To cover the $330 million, at least 200,000 laborers would be needed, which cannot go unnoticed.