n a two-day Russia-Africa summit held in St. Petersburg on July 27 and 28, one of the highlights was how Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed to mend relationships with African nations after his withdrawal from the Black Sea Food Agreement. Surprisingly, the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had faded from social media following a failed coup attempt in late June, reappeared, sharing pictures of his high-profile reception of visiting African officials and media heads in St. Petersburg. Prigozhin, who had previously claimed Russia would soon have a new president and even brandished his troops at Moscow, seemed to have completely received Putin’s ‘forgiveness’.
Prigozhin, reportedly ‘exiled’ to Belarus, has since reconciled with Putin, which is not news anymore. Putin admitted to meeting with Prigozhin and several Wagner commanders in the Kremlin following the coup attempt, but was unable to persuade Prigozhin to surrender his military leadership. Prigozhin’s ‘exile’ did not seem to have been particularly strict, as he has been moving freely between Belarus, St. Petersburg, and Moscow.
However, meeting with African officials and visitors on the fringes of the Russia-Africa summit – almost sharing the task of receiving foreign guests with Putin – further confirmed that Putin has put Prigozhin’s ‘rebellion’ behind him.
Photos of Prigozhin with officials from the Central African Republic were first published on social media by Dmitry Syty, a well-known frontman for Wagner’s operations in Central Africa. The pictures were reportedly taken in a St. Petersburg hotel owned by Prigozhin’s family. A second photo was released by a Telegram channel associated with the Wagner Group, featuring Prigozhin shaking hands with the director of Afrique Média, a pro-Russian, anti-French African French-language media outlet.
There are also reports that Prigozhin met with leaders of some African countries on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa summit forum and may even participate in a private dinner hosted by Putin.
Since 2014, Prigozhin, who established significant political influence for Russia in multiple African countries through the Wagner Group, seems to have spotted a ‘business opportunity’ in the coup in Niger on the night of the 26th. A Telegram channel closely related to Wagner’s African operations published a recording allegedly of Prigozhin praising the military coup that overthrew the pro-Western president of Niger, claiming that just ten million Wagner soldiers could restore order in the country.
Currently, Niger is home to thousands of troops from countries such as the US and France, serving as a hub for Western countries’ counter-terrorism operations in West Africa following the expulsion of French troops by the military governments of Mali and Burkina Faso. If Niger’s military coup ends up following the same script of replacing Western troops with Wagner mercenaries, it would be yet another victory for Russian diplomacy in West Africa.
After the leader of Niger’s armed forces announced support for the coup on the 27th, people in the capital Niamey took to the streets in support of the military coup, holding Russian flags and chanting anti-French slogans. This was similar to the situation in Mali and Burkina Faso.
In light of the developments since the Wagner coup attempt a month ago, it appears that Prigozhin still controls various businesses under the Wagner Group. The consensus between him and Putin following the coup is presumably to withdraw from Ukrainian and Russian politics and return to ‘overseas business’ as it was before the Russo-Ukrainian War. If Prigozhin indeed leaves Ukraine alone, Putin would likewise let Prigozhin be.
The question arises – why would Putin willingly let Prigozhin off the hook in a Russia where even the parents of a student who drew a pro-Ukrainian picture at school are not spared?
The simple answer is that Putin needs to seek the support of ‘Global South’ countries, including numerous African nations, internationally, or at least prevent them from leaning towards the West. In this context, Wagner’s activities in Africa are not a ‘nice-to-have’ for Russian diplomacy, but an indispensable layout.
Notably, Putin seems to have made Ukraine a dysfunctional state in order to thwart NATO’s eastward expansion, an argument put forward by American international political scientist Mearsheimer. Recently, Putin not only withdrew from the Black Sea Food Agreement, which effectively kept international grain prices low, but also continued to attack Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube grain transport port facilities in the Odesa region. This has undeniably driven up international grain prices, hitting many African countries first.
On the first day of the Russia-Africa summit, the African Union openly urged Russia to return to the agreement. Only 17 national leaders attended this Russia-Africa summit, a decrease of more than half from the inaugural summit in 2019, reflecting dissatisfaction among some African countries.
In an effort to win back African countries, Putin announced on the first day of the Russia-Africa summit that Russia’s grain exports would supplement Ukraine’s shortfall, promising to provide 25,000 to 50,000 tons of ‘free’ grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic, and Eritrea in the next three to four months. Notably, all these are countries where Wagner operates, spanning across Africa from east to west, reflecting clear geostrategic considerations.
Although tens of thousands of tons of grain are a drop in the bucket, it is a clear statement. If we calculate based on the per capita consumption of wheat and corn in Africa, this could provide for 250,000 to 500,000 people for a year, although these two grains account for less than a fifth of per capita food consumption.
If we say that Ukraine’s counter-offensive is slow and recent large-scale advances have not seen significant results, indicating that it is running out of tricks, Putin’s willingness to threaten the Black Sea food movement and forgive the Wagner coup likewise indicates that his situation may not be much different from the Zelensky administration in Ukraine.