On January 7, North Korea announced that its Missile General Bureau successfully conducted a test of a new hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile on January 6. The success of this test fully demonstrates the effectiveness of the missile system, indicating that North Korea’s hypersonic missile weapons have been successfully developed and are ready for deployment.
The missile was launched from a weapons test site on the outskirts of Pyongyang, flying northeast. The hypersonic glide warhead, separated from the ballistic missile, traveled along a predetermined trajectory at Mach 12 along the edge of the atmosphere. It performed two jumps: the first reached the Kármán line at an altitude of 99.8 km, and the second reached a peak altitude of 42.5 km (compared to the previous test’s second peak of 72 km). Finally, the hypersonic warhead accurately struck a simulated target 1,500 km away in the Sea of Japan.
The January 6 test is North Korea’s third successful test of a hypersonic missile using a wave-riding body configuration since the successful launches of the “Mars Cannon-8” and “Mars Cannon-16B” hypersonic missiles in the northern part of the peninsula. The range was extended from 1,000 km to 1,500 km, though this range is likely a partial-range test. Due to limited oceanic measurement capabilities, North Korea typically uses partial-range or high-ballistic tests for medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles to ensure that the warhead lands in the Sea of Japan.
From North Korea’s two hypersonic missile tests, it appears that the “Mars Cannon-8” is likely modeled after China’s DF-17 hypersonic missile, featuring a single-stage solid rocket motor and a range of 1,000 to 1,800 km. The “Mars Cannon-16B” may be modeled after China’s DF-27 hypersonic missile, featuring a two-stage solid rocket motor.
Given the large size of the “Mars Cannon-16B” missile, its actual maximum range is estimated to be between 3,000 and 5,000 km, enough to target locations such as Guam and other objectives in the second island chain. Its performance may be close to that of China’s DF-27, which has yet to be officially unveiled. The DF-27 is a medium-to-long-range hypersonic weapon using a two-stage engine and wave-riding hypersonic warhead, assisted by a DF-26 ballistic missile.
Today, only a few countries, including China, Russia, the United States, Iran, and North Korea, have the capability to develop and equip hypersonic missiles. Iran only has basic hypersonic technology, using a dual-cone configuration for maneuverable reentry warheads.
North Korea is the second country in the world to master the application of wave-riding body hypersonic missiles, with the first being China, which achieved this technology ten years ago.
China possesses the most comprehensive global family of hypersonic weapons, including dual-cone maneuverable reentry warheads capable of high-precision strikes and wave-riding body configurations with formidable penetration capabilities. These technologies are applied to more than ten types of hypersonic weapons and are developed across multiple platforms, including land-based, sea-based, submarine-based, and air-launched systems.
Russia has a strong foundation in hypersonic weapons but has exaggerated its capabilities. For instance, Russia’s “Kinzhal” and “Zircon” hypersonic missiles used in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have not performed spectacularly. Russia claims to have wave-riding body hypersonic missiles, but these have never been demonstrated publicly—only in animation of the “Avangard” missile’s wave-riding hypersonic warhead.
The recently revealed “Zircon” medium-range hypersonic missile, primarily designed for nuclear strikes, features a decoy warhead and lacks any new hypersonic design concepts. It is classified as a hypersonic missile only because its reentry speed exceeds Mach 10.
The U.S. is still in the research and catch-up phase for wave-riding body hypersonic missiles and has not yet achieved combat readiness. The U.S. Air Force’s air-launched hypersonic weapon uses a booster and wave-riding glide warhead, with a length of 6.7 meters, a weight of about 3 tons, a range of 1,600 km, and a speed of Mach 10. The U.S. is behind in this field, having spent many years developing hypersonic missiles, but only a few months ago did the B-52H bomber carry the AGM-183A hypersonic missile at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam.
In terms of development progress, the U.S. has fallen behind China and Russia and may now even be trailing North Korea.