A significant change has occurred in the situation in Northern Myanmar. The Kokang Allied Forces have secured a major victory in Northern Myanmar, completing the occupation of most of the Lashio area. Police forces have begun patrolling, and the final occupation is only a matter of time. The Myanmar government forces are in a state of collapse in Lashio, unable to recover.
Drones are relentlessly bombing the Myanmar Army, with the sounds of battle resounding through the sky. The victory of the Kokang Allied Forces is attributed to several factors, mainly the strong start that quickly cleared the outskirts of Lashio, creating a siege. This left the defending troops without supplies and reinforcements, making the battle much easier. Subsequently, they employed a shock tactic, directly storming into the city without wasting much time on the outskirts, and directly targeting the command center. The Myanmar government forces had committed a significant portion of their troops to the outer defenses, leaving them unable to plug the gaps when they appeared.
The Kokang Allied Forces’ offensive has been fierce, with drones bombing the Myanmar Army whenever the weather permits, fully utilizing their advantage in drone warfare. The Myanmar government forces have struggled with anti-drone measures and suffered greatly. Even the Myanmar Army’s Northeast Regional Command headquarters was reportedly bombed. With a series of victories, the Kokang Allied Forces’ morale is high, their continuous attacks yielding significant results.
The current situation is dire for the Myanmar government forces, especially after repeated failed breakouts and a string of bad news. It is known that Brigadier General Tint Tun Aung, the deputy commander responsible for Lashio, has been killed, and Colonel Dan Zin Win, the chief of staff of the Northeast Regional Command, also died in the battle at the Myanmar Army’s 41st Battalion base. As a result, the command system of the defending forces has been nearly obliterated. As for Brigadier General Suu Laye, the commander of the Northeast Regional Command who was supposed to be directing operations in Lashio, he is still hiding in Muse, never entering the combat zone. Once Lashio falls, he can establish a new headquarters in Muse, which is considered the last stronghold and face-saving move for the Northeast Regional Command of the Myanmar Army.
After five days and nights of siege, the Myanmar government forces have started surrendering, with reports of “surrendering and eating meat.” The reason for the mass surrender of tens of thousands of Myanmar soldiers became clear: the command center of the Myanmar government forces had nearly collapsed, with the chief of staff and the deputy commander dead. The defenders in Lashio were left to fend for themselves. At this point, surrender seemed like a better option than fighting. In the surroundings of Lashio, scenes of Myanmar soldiers boarding trucks with white flags to surrender were observed. Many soldiers lined up to surrender their weapons, resigning to their fate of surrendering their arms and returning home, leaving the Myanmar government forces with no chance of a comeback.
The Myanmar government forces’ generals have ordered desperate measures, including forcing prisoners to fight. The city’s prison has been opened, and prisoners have been released and forced to join the Myanmar Army’s defenders. This tactic resembles Russia’s policy of using prisoners to fight in exchange for amnesty, but it has proven ineffective. This is not the first time the Myanmar government has resorted to such measures, which have often resulted in mass desertions rather than effective combat.
Under the current circumstances, the Myanmar government forces have no new means to resolve the crisis. The situation has reached a point where defending Lashio is no longer tenable. The Myanmar government forces cannot send reinforcements, and if the Kokang Allied Forces break through, the fate of the defenders is sealed. Therefore, laying down their arms has become the best option, with fewer soldiers willing to resist to the end. The Han Chinese forces have achieved their biggest victory in 36 years.
With the situation in Lashio largely settled, the Kokang Allied Forces aim to minimize casualties rather than launch a full-scale assault. Capturing Lashio would mark a historic victory for the Han Chinese forces in Myanmar, the most significant in 36 years, both symbolically and practically.
With the capture of equipment and supplies, the Kokang Allied Forces are poised to expand their military capabilities further. In contrast, the Myanmar government forces, after losing 20,000 soldiers, have little chance of organizing a counteroffensive.
The Kokang Allied Forces have already secured sufficient equipment for siege warfare, and despite the presence of about ten infantry battalions, along with artillery, tanks, and militia forces in Muse, it remains uncertain whether they can hold the town. The Kokang Allied Forces are now encouraging the Myanmar government forces in Muse to surrender, which may become the next major battle. The overall situation is highly unfavorable for the Myanmar government forces, and signing a ceasefire agreement in Northern Myanmar may become the best strategic choice to avoid further depletion.
The situation in Myanmar has escalated, with no signs of resolution. Given the inability to militarily quell the unrest, the Myanmar government should consider ending the conflict peacefully.