Within just four days, Chinese military aircraft entered the airspace in the eastern part of Taiwan Island three times, conducting anti-submarine and anti-access operations, laying down the net and waiting for the big fish, both above and below the surface, to take the bait. At the same time, this serves as a reminder to countries like the US and Japan, as well as certain factions within Taiwan, not to continue playing with fire over the Taiwan Strait issue.
According to a report from Japan’s Ministry of Defense Joint Staff Office, PLA aircraft, including bombers and special mission aircraft, have been active in the Western Pacific by passing through the Miyako Strait on three occasions recently.
In the first two instances, Chinese aircraft deployed were Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft, while the last involved one Y-9 electronic reconnaissance aircraft, two H-6 bombers, and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flying northward after crossing the Bashi Channel. As the Japanese side did not release photos of the UAV, its model remains unidentified. After analyzing flight routes, Western military media such as Jane’s Defence Weekly concluded that in all three instances, PLA aircraft conducted their final activities in the airspace east of Taiwan Island, leading to the inference that PLA was conducting anti-access/area denial exercises.
In the final operation, which involved the H-6 bombers, there is a certain rationality to this inference. While the H-6 is capable of carrying multiple missiles for strike missions, it still has some gaps in reconnaissance and tracking compared to specialized aircraft used for intelligence gathering. It cannot perform tasks like electronic suppression. Hence, PLA needs to coordinate the H-6 with other aircraft to leverage the advantages of joint operations. In this operation, PLA indeed deployed electronic reconnaissance aircraft, and the unidentified UAV likely performed auxiliary tasks such as reconnaissance and signal relay.
Furthermore, the airspace and waters east of Taiwan Island happen to be a primary operational area for PLA in future anti-access/area denial operations to prevent US and Japanese naval and aerial intervention in Taiwan and interfering with cross-sea landing operations.
For instance, whenever tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, the US Navy routinely withdraws its carrier battle groups from the first island chain and deploys them to the waters east of Taiwan, coordinating with forces in Okinawa and elsewhere. If the situation changes, these battle groups can swiftly relocate.
Naturally, PLA cannot allow US aircraft carriers to remain comfortably in this position. Should the situation in the Taiwan Strait escalate, PLA maritime and aerial forces must not only suppress US and Japanese troops in places like Okinawa but also drive US carrier battle groups out of this area. If US carriers fail to arrive in position in advance and instead rush from places like Hawaii, PLA must intercept them even farther east.
This explains why PLA aircraft appeared in this location. If the objective were to practice striking targets in Okinawa, PLA wouldn’t need to deploy H-6 bombers to this position.
Moreover, the airspace where PLA aircraft were active in this operation is approximately 2000 kilometers from Guam, the core US base in the second island chain. The previously speculated range of the CJ-20 long-range cruise missile exceeds 2000 kilometers, suggesting that PLA may have conducted related long-range strike exercises in this operation to establish strategic deterrence against US forces in the direction of the second island chain.
However, what Western military media didn’t realize is that only the final operation involved H-6 bombers; the first two operations utilized Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft. This indicates that the PLA’s initial actions were actually long-range anti-submarine exercises in the open ocean, conducted in response to changes in the situation in the Western Pacific.
In order to counter the growing surface fleet of the Chinese Navy and search for China’s strategic nuclear submarines, the Pentagon has deliberately strengthened its submarine forces in the Western Pacific in recent years. Over five nuclear submarines have been deployed in Guam alone. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN), in coordination with the US military, are continuously enhancing the combat capabilities of their submarine forces. The JMSDF recently commissioned a new submarine. All of this undoubtedly drives PLA to expand its anti-submarine surveillance range.
In other words, while the H-6 squadron was practicing striking US and Japanese surface vessels and bases, the Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft were searching for hidden “assassins” underwater and awaiting the arrival of the “big fish.”
It should be noted that these series of military actions by PLA serve a specific purpose, which is to deter pro-independence forces within Taiwan and countries like the US and Japan.
In recent times, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has been unstable. A day before the deployment of H-6 bombers, the White House released the budget report for the fiscal year 2025, which for the first time explicitly included security assistance to Taiwan in the State Department budget, possibly totaling up to $10 billion. The Pentagon’s budget also includes a $500 million allocation to provide US inventory weapons to Taiwan’s defense establishment.
Simultaneously, there are reports from US media indicating that US troops will be stationed in Taiwan under the guise of “exchange,” with some personnel being deployed to places like Kinmen. While US troops have previously trained with Taiwan’s military, there hasn’t been a clear permanent presence.
Given the backing from the US, the Taiwan authorities have become increasingly assertive. The Minister of National Defense of Taiwan, Chiu Kuo-cheng, even stated that should war break out, the Taiwanese military would fight to the “last man and last bullet.”
In such a situation, Chinese military needs to continuously conduct realistic exercises around Taiwan Island to further enhance its capabilities in anti-submarine warfare, anti-access operations, and other combat abilities, preparing for possible conflicts in the Taiwan Strait in the future. Ultimately, through practical actions, they aim to compel the US to abandon its “Taiwan containment” strategy and shatter the illusions of some individuals within Taiwan who rely on the US for independence or use force to resist reunification.