On July 22, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China released a working document titled “China’s Proposal on No First Use of Nuclear Weapons.” This proposal urged nuclear powers such as the U.S., Russia, the UK, and France to jointly commit to not being the first to use nuclear weapons.
However, according to informed sources, in May, China set a record by purchasing enriched uranium worth $300 million from Russia. In April, it spent $70 million on similar purchases.
Enriched uranium can be used for nuclear power generation, but when further purified, it can also be used in nuclear weapons or as fuel for nuclear submarine reactors.
China has limited uranium mines, while Russia has abundant uranium resources, so China has consistently imported uranium from Russia. This situation might not be directly related to the proposal, but the strategic confrontation between China and the U.S. is becoming increasingly intense. There is a possibility of conflict, making the quantity and launch capability of nuclear weapons the ultimate trump card.
It is understood that China currently has no issues with nuclear weapon delivery systems. Its satellite navigation and hypersonic missiles are among the world’s best. However, the number of nuclear weapons is relatively low. External estimates suggest that China has 200-300 nuclear warheads.
Compared to the thousands of nuclear warheads declared by the U.S. and Russia, China’s number is insufficient for a final showdown, providing limited deterrence. Therefore, China is currently rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. The U.S. intelligence community is likely aware of this, prompting China to reassure the international community by reiterating its no-first-use nuclear policy.
Analysts believe that China’s recent proposal on the no first use of nuclear weapons is essentially a countermeasure to its significant nuclear expansion.
Furthermore, on July 20, just before the release of this document, the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration suddenly disclosed the current number of U.S. nuclear warheads (3,748). This unexpected move also raised eyebrows.
Considering the current situation, it is reasonable to suspect that both China and the U.S. are making strategic moves regarding nuclear deterrence, thereby probing each other’s intentions.
In April, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Administrator Jill Hruby stated that the United States will develop the W93 nuclear warhead. The U.S. has justified this move by citing that it has entered an era filled with “global threats” and instability.