Two years ago, I already believed that it would be very difficult for Apple to create a car that stands out from the crowd, and my prediction has once again come true.
Through the shared mindset of the mediocre, seeing the true trend of the industry without being swayed by various past information, believing only in methodology and the derivation of industry models, there are not many such people. Over the years, I have constructed this model, and I use it to analyze industries, with mostly successful results. I believe only a few economists have this industry model and can reach my level.
For the past two years, I have been saying that China’s technological strength has surpassed that of the United States. Many people from the lower echelons of society who heard my words reacted as if they had dug up their own ancestral graves, without considering what kind of life they are leading. Is that ancestral grave even yours?
What is technological strength? Technological strength means improving social efficiency, reducing social costs, enhancing societal capabilities, and enabling your products to have competitive strength.
Over a decade ago, Apple redefined the smartphone, not just in concept but also with a plethora of technologies surrounding it. Apple had the capability to develop these technologies, providing users with excellent experiences, and its products dominated the market worldwide. What was this? This was technological strength.
However, today the United States no longer possesses this strength. Not only does the United States lack manufacturing capabilities, it also lacks the ability to innovate high-tech products.
I have always believed that the smart car is the product of modern technology reaching its zenith, as cars are the foremost mass consumer product for humans. Cars not only affect social efficiency but also social safety. In China alone, there are 50,000 deaths from road traffic accidents each year. If automation could reduce this number from 50,000 to 10,000, it would be a huge societal contribution.
The automotive industry in China has a value of 10 trillion yuan today, which has a significant impact on economic development. In the past, the economies of the United States, Germany, and Japan were very strong, with automobiles being a crucial pillar. Naturally, the future economic backbone would also be automobiles.
Smart cars involve more than just assembling a vehicle; they include intelligent motor technology, intelligent chassis technology, intelligent lighting technology, intelligent cockpit technology, autonomous driving technology, battery technology, power management technology, and sensing technology. These technologies, from hardware to software, form a vast system. It is an integration of various technologies such as materials, precision manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, representing the pinnacle of human technological integration today.
Smart cars are not about production but about the research and development of underlying technologies.
Since Apple announced its car-making plans in 2013, it assembled a massive team and spent billions of dollars, only to end in failure. This signifies that Apple has missed an opportunity to reach new heights.
Why did this happen? It’s because Apple lacks the comprehensive R&D capabilities of a vast system, and the United States no longer has such technological strength. Look at China; smart cars are thriving today. Companies like NIO, Li Auto, XPeng, the powerful BYD, and Huawei are taking smart cars to new heights, while Xiaomi is also entering to prove itself. There are also numerous traditional car manufacturers. China isn’t just one strong player; it’s a pack of wolves, forming a powerful group for smart cars.
Not only can China produce complete smart vehicles, but it also independently develops and produces fundamental technologies like sensors, intelligent motors, intelligent chassis, and batteries. Today, several supercar factories are being built in China, representing the highest level of human smart car manufacturing.
Apple has lost this R&D capability. Not only can Apple not produce smart cars, but it’s also reportedly giving up on foldable screen phones.
Many people’s understanding of smart cars is limited to autonomous driving. In fact, smart cars have reached unprecedented levels of safety and comfort, requiring imagination, creativity, and strong innovation abilities, abilities that currently only China possesses.
I know that after reading this passage, some people feel very uncomfortable. If so, you can slap yourself hard a few times, maybe then you’ll feel more relaxed. (Xiang Ligang)