In July 2023, the British media “The Guardian” raised a sensational opinion: that it is almost impossible for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to succeed in militarily unifying Taiwan.
The Guardian believes that the PLA currently faces three major problems that are difficult to resolve, which would make it hard for them to succeed in a military takeover of Taiwan.
Civilian Casualty Issue
The first problem is civilian casualties. According to the British perspective, Taiwan has a high population density, and the majority of its population is concentrated in key areas. The more populated and significant the city, the more it is defended by island armed forces. This results in the possibility of large-scale firefights around, and even within, these cities. To combat the “defenders” on the island of Taiwan, the PLA would likely employ heavy firepower. This could devastate these cities and result in numerous civilian casualties. Therefore, The Guardian believes that, due to concerns over civilian casualties, the PLA would face significant constraints in any effort to take over Taiwan. To this point, one could argue that the British understanding of war remains rooted in the World War II era. Perhaps in their view, the PLA should invade Taiwan as the Americans did at Iwo Jima or the Soviets in Berlin.
However, in reality, if the PLA were to address the Taiwan issue, it could conduct precision strikes. Firstly, the Rocket Force has many highly accurate missiles capable of rapidly neutralizing the command centers of Taiwan’s reactionary forces. Secondly, China is a leader in drone technology. The drone activities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have already demonstrated their precision strike capabilities. Most importantly, China’s drone technology is world-class, and its production capacity is unmatched.
Combat Experience Issue
The second problem pointed out by The Guardian is the PLA’s lack of recent combat experience. The Guardian believes that since the PLA hasn’t fought a war in decades and warfare has evolved significantly in the meantime, the PLA might be ill-equipped to handle modern warfare. However, the argument is that the British neither understand the PLA nor modern warfare. Modern warfare relies heavily on information and system-based operations. And the global leaders in this type of warfare are the US and China. The Guardian’s assertion that the PLA can’t wage modern warfare due to its lack of recent combat experience is seen as a limited perspective.
Logistical and Troop Reinforcement
The final problem is the PLA’s ability to manage logistics and troop reinforcements. The Guardian believes that the presence of the Taiwan Strait will make it difficult for the PLA to replenish troops and supplies. But this perspective assumes the PLA can’t control maritime dominance. The key issue, as seen in this piece, lies in a naval battle between China and the US. The PLA’s DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missile can deter US warships from coming within 1500 nautical miles of China.
Moreover, The Guardian questions the PLA’s troop supply, citing recruitment difficulties in China in recent years. But for those familiar with Chinese sentiment, the historical issues with Taiwan and Japan mean that if there’s any move to “liberate” Taiwan, there would likely be no shortage of willing recruits for the PLA.