After years of accelerating production of the J-20, the Chinese Air Force’s fleet of fifth-generation aircraft has seen a significant increase in size. Many units previously equipped with second-generation J-7s and J-8s have replaced them with the more advanced J-20.
As the most potent aerial asset in the Chinese Air Force, the J-20 has long been of keen interest to the West.
However, in May 2024, Western satellites monitoring China noticed something unusual: a significant number of newly produced J-20s being deployed to the frontline facing Taiwan.
It’s worth noting that Fujian Province’s coastal areas have already seen large-scale deployments of the J-20. The further increase in the number of fighter jets raises the question: is China preparing for action? Objectively speaking, this sign does suggest that China is accelerating its preparations for potential military action regarding Taiwan.
Southeast Coastal Areas Stirring
After all, the southeast coastal regions have always been the main direction for J-20 deployments, where the Chinese Air Force faces its primary aerial threats.
Currently, including the Wanghai Brigade, there are known to be two Chinese Air Force aviation brigades equipped with the J-20. Considering the ongoing deployment of the J-20 by the Air Force, the actual number is likely higher.
Fujian’s coastal areas are the frontline facing Taiwan, meaning the Chinese Air Force will directly confront the aerial threats posed by the United States, Japan, and the island’s armed forces.
The mainstay fighter jets of the island’s armed forces are the upgraded F-16Vs, based on the F-16A/B, and the new F-16V. As a fourth-and-a-half-generation fighter, their combat capabilities are not to be underestimated.
Without fifth-generation fighters like the J-20, relying solely on fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters like the J-10C and J-16 to completely neutralize their aerial strength would require considerable effort.
If the Chinese military cannot establish air superiority in the Taiwan Strait, it will be challenging to conduct subsequent amphibious island seizure operations. Therefore, the deployment of the J-20 on the Taiwan frontline is essential.
Japan, as the vanguard of the United States against China, also poses significant aviation threats. With the complete retirement of the F-4EJ, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) currently operates the F-35A, F-15J/DJ, and F-2A.
Among them, the F-35A poses the greatest threat as a fifth-generation fighter. The JASDF has a certain degree of systematic aerial combat capability, enhancing the combat effectiveness of the F-35A considerably.
While theoretically, the J-20, as a heavy air superiority fighter, holds certain advantages over medium-sized multi-role fighters like the F-35A, in situations where both sides’ technological levels are close, the numerical advantage of the J-20 becomes crucial. This is also a significant reason why the Chinese military continues to strengthen the deployment of fifth-generation fighters on the Taiwan Strait frontline.
In the JASDF’s operational system, the F-15J/DJ and F-35A may be tasked with providing air cover for the F-2A, which has anti-ship capabilities. Despite being a defeated power in World War II, Japan’s military development is not to be underestimated, with its military technology level being quite high.
Japan’s Type 12 anti-ship missile includes an air-launched version. Previously, Japan also revealed a stealthy-shaped anti-ship missile with a reported range of several hundred kilometers.
Under the cover of stealth fighters, the F-2A carrying anti-ship missiles could indeed pose a threat to the Chinese Navy. Therefore, the J-20 must ensure air superiority to counter aerial threats and coordinate with fleet air defense systems.
In addition to Japan and the island’s armed forces, the United States Air Force stationed in the Asia-Pacific region has always been a significant adversary for the Chinese Air Force. Over the past 20 years, the United States has deployed a large number of fifth-generation aircraft to the region, including the Air Force’s F-22A and F-35A, the Navy’s F-35C carrier-based aircraft, and the Marine Corps’ F-35B.
The air power of the US military is incomparable to that of Japan and the island’s armed forces. The US military possesses a complete aerial combat system and can achieve synergy and coordination among different branches’ air power.
The US military’s air power in the Asia-Pacific region has independent offensive and defensive capabilities. The confrontation between China and the United States is not only between individual equipment but also between two operational systems directly.
Dealing with Aerial Pressure
Since its first flight in 2011, the J-20 is no longer considered a new piece of equipment for the Chinese. After 13 years of continuous improvement and development, the J-20 is nearing full operational capability but has not yet fully reached its optimal performance.
Currently, the majority of the units equipped by the Chinese military are the J-20A, which retains the basic configuration of the production model J-20 and is equipped with domestically produced WS-10B engines.
The J-20B, which features a humpback design optimized for supersonic performance and WS-15 engines, has only appeared at the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute’s test flight field and has completed test flights. It still has some distance to go before being deployed to units.
The J-20B’s modification of aerodynamic shape means that if it is to be equipped with units in the future, some changes will undoubtedly be made to the existing production line. At this time when China urgently needs to increase J-20 production, the mass production of the J-20B is likely to be delayed, making way for the rapidly operational J-20A.
The newly added J-20s on the Taiwan frontline also indicate this. Many may feel regretful about the delayed mass production of the J-20B, but in reality, the J-20A can already meet the needs of the military and suppress the fifth-generation and fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters operated by the United States and its allies in the vicinity of China.
If China’s sixth-generation fighter project progresses quickly, it is also possible for the J-20B to be shelved as a technological reserve.
Currently, AVIC’s focus on the J-20 project is on increasing production capacity rather than improving aircraft performance. Foreign media believe that AVIC can now produce around 100 J-20s per year, which may be somewhat exaggerated, but an annual production capacity of around 80 aircraft should be achievable.
Compared to the F-35 of the United States, the advantage of the J-20 lies in not having to share production capacity with other countries. The J-20 is unlikely to receive export permits for a long time, meaning all produced J-20s will equip the Chinese Air Force to replace remaining second-generation aircraft units.
China’s ultimate goal for its Air Force should be to possess 600 to 800 fifth-generation aircraft and upgrade all remaining fourth-generation fighters to fourth-and-a-half-generation standards, forming an advanced air force composed of fifth-generation and fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters, surpassing the United States to become the world’s leading air power.
References:
[1] Major Li Weipeng: All J-20s at this air show have been equipped with “Chinese Heart.” Global Times. November 10, 2022. [Accessed November 10, 2022]
[2] Official Announcement! J-20 Equipped This Heroic Unit! Global Times. June 18, 2021. [Accessed June 21, 2021]