If China and Japan were to go to war again, given the current strength of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, could they match up to the Chinese military?
The history of grievances and disputes between China and Japan remains unresolved to this day. Japan, as a cornerstone of America’s containment of China in the Asia-Pacific region, continues its anti-China actions unabated. Many believe that if a major conflict erupts between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region in the future, Japan will inevitably be involved.
So, the question arises: nearly 80 years after the end of the war of resistance, what is the current military balance between China and Japan?
Fundamental Differences in Air Forces
The Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) once enjoyed a significant technological advantage over the Chinese Air Force.
Since the 1980s, with the introduction of American-made F-15s, as the most classic fourth-generation heavy fighter, the JASDF’s air superiority capability completely overwhelmed China’s second-generation aircraft, a situation that only began to change after the introduction of the Su-27 into China.
Supported by the United States, Japan has a strong foundation in aviation technology. In addition to domestically producing the F-15J/DJ and F-4EJ/EJK, it has also integrated US and Japanese technologies to develop the F-1 and F-2 fighters, which are quite formidable.
However, as the Chinese Air Force entered a period of rapid development, the situation between China and Japan gradually reversed. China first upgraded its main fighter fleet with large-scale domestic production of the J-10 and J-11, and then took an early lead in fifth-generation fighter development with the J-20.
The maturity of fifth-generation fighter technology has also benefited the appearance and upgrade of China’s fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters. Currently, the main fighter fleet of the Chinese Air Force has been upgraded to the fourth-and-a-half-generation standard, surpassing the US Air Force and possessing the world’s largest fleet of advanced fighter aircraft.
Japan’s aviation capabilities pale in comparison to China’s burgeoning Air Force. The two main fighter jets of the JASDF, the F-15J and F-2A, are both relatively standard fourth-generation fighters. Although the F-2A is equipped with one of the world’s earliest batches of active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, its reliability is poor, and its actual performance lags significantly behind contemporary AESA radars.
In other words, there is currently about a half-generation technological gap between Japanese and Chinese aircraft.
In terms of fifth-generation fighters, although Japan has also procured the F-35 from the United States, barely qualifying as possessing a fifth-generation aircraft, Japan’s fifth-generation fighters are purchased, while China’s are domestically produced. In wartime situations, this will result in a significant difference in combat damage replenishment.
Moreover, the number of fifth-generation aircraft between China and Japan is also incomparable. It is generally believed that China’s J-20 has already exceeded an annual production of 300 aircraft, with over 200 in active service, while Japan has only ordered a total of 150 F-35s, which are still being delivered, making the disparity in combat capabilities almost visibly evident.
Developmental Disparity in the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force
An objective assessment of the operational capabilities and comprehensive strength of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) reveals that it is not weak, being considered a formidable naval power in the world. However, Japan’s current naval strength is somewhat lacking in terms of operational scenarios and functions.
After World War II, the US military, having suffered losses from the combined fleet, placed great emphasis on the development of Japan’s maritime forces. The United States does not prohibit the development of the JMSDF but rather guides its development according to US plans. For example, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force has been relegated to the Seventh Fleet’s anti-submarine support unit.
Since the outset, the JMSDF has not been positioned for independent operations but rather to excel in its role within the US military’s maritime offensive and defensive system. Forcing it into direct naval combat with the Chinese Navy would undoubtedly put it at a significant disadvantage.
However, Japan’s naval vessels are technologically advanced. After obtaining relevant technologies from the American-made Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, Japan successively developed three generations of anti-aircraft destroyers: the Kongō, Atago, and Maya.
Like the story of the reversal of fortunes in the air force aspect between China and Japan, Japan also watched as China surpassed itself in naval power. During the era of the Kongō, Japan possessed the world’s most advanced destroyers, while China’s modern warship technology remained in the 1970s.
After the introduction of the Atago, China’s shipbuilding technology began to advance rapidly. The Type 052C, represented by the new generation of Chinese warships, has closed the technological gap with the Arleigh Burke I and Kongō.
Before the Maya’s introduction, the Chinese Navy had actually surpassed Japan. The comprehensive strength of Chinese shield ships, represented by the Type 052D/DL, is far superior to Japan’s destroyers, which focus more on air defense and anti-submarine warfare.
With the advent of the 055-class 10,000-ton destroyer, Japan finds itself needing to catch up with China’s pace, launching a new destroyer project to narrow the gap between the two navies’ vessels.
However, this brings us back to the original question: Japan’s naval development has always been constrained, and despite its upgrades, it remains an auxiliary force within the US-Japan Seventh Fleet. Directly engaging with the Chinese Navy is extremely difficult.
Furthermore, the Japanese Navy lacks systematic operational capabilities. Once the US military’s maritime operational system is destroyed by the Chinese military, the combat effectiveness of the JMSDF will be significantly reduced.
Vast Disparity in Ground Forces
The Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) is the largest branch of the Japanese military, yet it possesses the most mediocre combat capabilities among Japan’s military forces.
Japan is an island nation, and with limited defense budgets, most resources are inevitably allocated to the development of the maritime and air forces, leaving the GSDF’s development severely restricted in comparison.
However, due to the GSDF’s relatively small size in terms of ground combat forces and Japan’s economic size, equipment upgrades have continued uninterrupted in recent years.
Compared to the loosening of military restrictions on maritime and air forces, the GSDF’s main equipment remains designed primarily for homeland defense. For example, the Type 10 main battle tank, recently equipped by the GSDF, is a ground equipment with distinct Japanese characteristics.
The Type 10 places emphasis on vehicle informatization and high mobility, while relegating the traditional tank’s primary focus on armor penetration capability to a secondary role, which is quite interesting.
However, considering Japan’s homeland defense needs, such trade-offs are not unreasonable. Japan has many mountainous regions with narrow roads, and the Type 10’s light weight and small size make it ideal for mountain warfare. Additionally, it is equipped with a hydraulic suspension system that increases the tank’s gun elevation angle and maneuverability.
If a comparison must be made, the Type 10 is actually more similar to China’s Type 15. Although there is a significant difference in the comprehensive strength of the two countries’ armies, the technological gap in equipment levels is relatively small, with both having modernized their ground combat forces.
In conclusion, given the current strength of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, it would be extremely difficult for them to match up to the Chinese military.