The “showdown” in the electric vehicle market for 2023 has concluded.
On the first day of 2024, various electric vehicle companies successively released their sales or delivery data for December 2023, revealing the overall performance for the entire year. Among them, BYD achieved a sales volume of 3.024 million units, successfully meeting its annual target. Meanwhile, NIO surpassed the milestone of 50,000 deliveries in the last month of the year.
Behind these standout performances, several electric vehicle companies, including Aiways, NIO, and Jinko, also experienced significant growth in delivery numbers. However, they fell short of reaching the annual targets set at the beginning of the year. Notably, Naza Auto showed signs of falling behind.
For 2024, the industry expects wholesale electric vehicle volumes to reach 11 million units, with a net increase of 2.3 million units, and a penetration rate of 40%.
BYD Takes the Lead
BYD dominated throughout 2023, leaving competitors “miles behind.”
Data released by BYD on January 1st showed that in December 2023, BYD’s electric vehicle sales reached 341,000 units, setting a new monthly sales record and surpassing the 235,000 units sold in the same period the previous year. The leading electric vehicle manufacturer achieved a cumulative sales volume of 3.024 million units in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 62.3%, successfully meeting its initial sales target of 3 million units.
The proportion of pure electric vehicles in BYD’s sales mix is gradually increasing. In December, pure electric models accounted for 190,800 units, while hybrid models contributed 149,400 units. Notably, pure electric vehicle sales exceeded hybrid sales by around 40,000 units.
It’s worth noting that BYD not only maintained stable domestic sales but also increased its overseas sales month by month. In December 2023, BYD sold a total of 36,100 new energy passenger vehicles overseas, marking the third consecutive month with sales exceeding 30,000 units.
In October and November 2023, overseas sales were 30,500 units and 30,600 units, respectively. BYD’s total overseas sales for the entire year reached 242,800 units.
Aiways Faces Obvious Bottleneck
Following BYD, Aiways and NIO have formed the second tier. According to Aiways’ latest announcement, it achieved a sales volume of 45,900 units in the last month of the year, with a total annual sales volume slightly exceeding 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 77%.
As early as the beginning of 2023, Aiways set a sales target of “striving to reach 500,000 units and sprinting towards 600,000 units.” However, it seems that the actual sales volume did not reach the initial target set at the beginning of the year.
In fact, Aiways’ sales have been stagnant since May this year, with monthly sales hovering between 40,000 and 50,000 units. In October and November, monthly sales even dropped to 41,500 units and 41,600 units. To explore new markets, Aiways has set its sights on Southeast Asia. However, whether overseas expansion can proceed smoothly as planned and help break through the sales bottleneck remains to be seen.
The most remarkable new force in the industry this year is undoubtedly Ideal Auto. According to the December delivery data it released, Ideal Auto delivered 50,400 new vehicles in December 2023, a year-on-year increase of 137.1%. This also marked the first time Ideal Auto exceeded the 50,000 monthly delivery threshold, fulfilling CEO Li Xiang’s previous commitment.
Before that, Ideal Auto had faced a “bottleneck,” with delivery volumes hovering around 40,000 units for several months. Even in November, it did not achieve the target of surpassing 45,000 deliveries. According to official statements, capacity constraints were the main reason for the difficulty in increasing deliveries.
Overall, Ideal Auto accumulated deliveries of 376,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 182.2%. As of December 31, 2023, Ideal Auto’s cumulative deliveries exceeded 600,000 units, making it the new force with the highest delivery volume among new electric vehicle companies.
It is reported that the Ideal MEGA will be officially launched on March 1 this year and will be available for delivery immediately. On January 1, Li Xiang publicly announced, “Challenge higher goals in 2024: 800,000 (annual delivery volume), 100,000 (monthly delivery volume), 30,000 (monthly delivery volume of a single model), 2,000 (highway + urban supercharging stations).”
The Third Tier “Struggle”
Behind Aiways and Ideal Auto, including NIO, Zero Run, Xiaopeng, and Jinko, new energy vehicle companies formed the third tier, with sales volumes relatively close to each other.
NIO, for instance, reported that it delivered 18,000 new vehicles in December 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. In the entire fourth quarter, NIO delivered a total of 50,000 units, exceeding the previously announced delivery guidance. NIO’s annual delivery volume in 2023 reached 160,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, but it is far from its initial sales target of 250,000 units set at the beginning of the year.
After experiencing “growing pains” in the first half of the year, NIO’s sales gradually stabilized. Moreover, NIO received capital injections from Middle Eastern capital twice in the second half of the year, providing “ammunition” for future market competition. NIO Chairman Li Bin recently revealed to reporters that the competition in the mass market, where the second brand of NIO will enter, is extremely fierce.
According to him, the second brand will focus on the family market, be efficiency-oriented, and will not introduce too many models. “In the market for home use priced at over 200,000 yuan, there is an opportunity to produce pure electric models with a monthly sales volume of five to six thousand units.” He estimated.
Following NIO in delivery volume is Lixiang Auto. Its delivery data shows that Lixiang delivered a total of 18,600 vehicles in December 2023, a year-on-year increase of 119%. The discount activities since entering the fourth quarter have significantly boosted Lixiang’s sales. In October and November, Lixiang’s monthly deliveries remained above 18,000 units, setting monthly delivery records month by month. Overall, Lixiang delivered a total of 144,200 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of over 29%.
In the past few months, Xpeng Motors, which rebounded in sales, delivered 20,100 vehicles in December, a year-on-year increase of 78%, with a cumulative delivery of over 60,000 in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 171%. In the entire year of 2023, Xpeng Motors delivered a total of 141,600 units, which is far from its initial goal of 200,000 deliveries set at the beginning of the year.
Jinko’s December delivery data shows that its delivery volume for the month was 13,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and a slight increase of 2.84% compared to the previous month. Overall, Jinko’s cumulative delivery volume reached 118,700 units for the whole year of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, this new energy vehicle company under the Geely umbrella also failed to achieve its annual sales target of 140,000 units.
The most awkward situation is Nezha Auto, as its delivery volume in December 2023 experienced a cliff-like decline, with a delivery volume of only 5,135 units, putting it in a precarious situation. This new force in the industry, considered a “dark horse” in 2022, gradually slowed down its delivery volume since the beginning of this year.
In the entire year of 2023, Nezha Auto delivered a total of 127,500 vehicles, which is almost half of its initial sales target of 250,000 units set at the beginning of the year. Among new energy vehicle companies, Nezha Auto has clearly fallen behind.
Aito Wenjie Continues to Climb
Amid the fierce competition among the above-mentioned companies, AITO Wenjie has noticeably stood out, with its delivery volume continuing to rise as expected. After reaching a delivery volume of 18,800 units in November 2023, it surpassed the 20,000-unit mark for the first time this month, reaching 24,500 units, a month-on-month increase of 29.96%. Of these, the new M7 from AITO Wenjie alone delivered 20,600 units in December.
Previously, the new M7 accumulated a large number of orders. According to previous official statements, after the model was launched, the accumulated pre-orders exceeded 100,000 units in the first two and a half months. It can be foreseen that AITO Wenjie’s delivery volume will continue to remain high. “AITO Wenjie has been improving its delivery capabilities, and starting from 2024, the monthly delivery capacity is expected to reach 30,000 units,” said Yu Chengdong, Executive Director of Huawei and Chairman of the Intelligent Car Solution BU.
It is worth noting that AITO Wenjie’s cumulative delivery volume reached 94,400 units in the whole year of 2023, far exceeding its annual sales volume of 75,000 units in 2022.
On December 28, 2023, the “best SUV under 1 million” AITO Wenjie M9 made its debut, and the model accumulated more than 30,000 units in just seven days. Moreover, in 2024, AITO Wenjie plans to release and mass-produce the M8 model. By then, AITO Wenjie will have at least four models on sale. According to industry sources, AITO Wenjie’s annual sales target for 2024 is set at 600,000 units.
Lantu Automobile, supported by Dongfeng Group, is also increasing its delivery volume. According to the data it released, the delivery volume in December 2023 exceeded 10,000 units for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 479%. Before July this year, its monthly delivery volume was below 3,500 units. After entering August, its delivery volume increased month by month. In 2023, the annual sales volume of Lantu reached 50,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 160%.
In addition to Lantu, Jihu, a subsidiary of BAIC, had an annual sales volume of 30,000 units, while Zhiji, a subsidiary of SAIC, had an annual sales volume of 38,300 units, both of which were relatively low in sales volume.
Penetration Rate May Reach 40% in 2024
Looking back, against the backdrop of the halving of the vehicle purchase tax for gasoline cars and the end of subsidies for new energy vehicles at the end of 2022, the Chinese auto market started weakly in 2023 but continued to strengthen later in the year. With the joint promotion of exports and new energy vehicles, the annual sales volume in 2023 is expected to reach a historic high.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, predicts that the market growth of new energy vehicles in 2024 is relatively optimistic. The wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars is expected to reach 11 million units, with a net increase of 2.3 million units, a year-on-year growth of 22%, and a penetration rate of 40%. New energy passenger cars will maintain a strong growth momentum.
However, he also mentioned that the new energy vehicle market in 2024 faces certain structural pressures from the demand groups. From the perspective of the three major purchasing groups classified by national insurance data—rental, corporate, and private, the current scale of the ride-hailing market is close to saturation, and the pressure of congestion brought by ride-hailing has increased significantly, with a noticeable decrease in income.
Moreover, according to the analysis of changes in the technical line increment based on retail data from the China Passenger Car Association, the growth rate of pure electric cars has slowed significantly in recent times, and plug-in hybrid cars have a higher year-on-year growth rate. However, the month-on-month trend of plug-in hybrids has slowed significantly in recent months, so the growth of plug-in hybrids in 2024 may slow down significantly. The growth of extended-range electric vehicles has accelerated significantly this year, but the scale is limited. Therefore, new energy growth lacks new momentum.
Cui Dongshu also mentioned that from the perspective of industry benefits, companies without stable cash flow find it difficult to sustain continuous growth. Currently, traditional independent brand automakers’ development of new energy vehicles is becoming stronger. He also expressed that besides leading companies, new energy vehicles still face certain profit pressure, and the scale of selling cars at a loss is difficult to expand continuously.
At the same time, several departments have successively issued documents such as “Notice on Carrying out Pilot Programs for the Access and On-road Testing of Intelligent Connected Vehicles” and “Guidelines for Autonomous Driving Car Transport Safety Services (Trial)” in the recent period. Specific requirements for the access standards of L3/L4 autonomous driving have been put forward, the responsibility attribution of high-level intelligent driving accidents has been clarified, and the selection of the first batch of companies has started. Moreover, the domestic L3 test license for many car companies has also been issued successively.
Led by top companies such as Tesla and Huawei, intelligent driving is in a process of rapid iteration. Many institutions believe that autonomous driving functions may become a new demand for consumers to buy cars in the future, and intelligent driving functions may become the winning factor for the overall sales volume of vehicles in the future.